擒数网 （随信APP) | 特朗普的经济计划中包括关税、减税和能源问题。

美国共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普的经济计划依赖关税来增加收入，并瞄准他说已经“欺诈我们”的国家-版权AFP /档案吉姆·沃特森

作者：许倍仪

美国共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普希望重新带回美国制造业并降低成本，依赖关税来增加美国国库收入并对其他国家施加压力 - 但现实并不那么简单。

在11月的选举之前，经济学家警告称，他的政策可能会提高消费者价格并动摇全球贸易 - 对美国生产的好处不明确。

这一方案是为了通过关税增加数十亿美元的收入，并瞄准像中国这样“欺诈我们”的国家，同时推动企业将生产带回美国本土。

特朗普在与民主党候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯的九月辩论中说：“其他国家最终会在75年后偿还我们为全球所做的一切。”

他上周在密歇根州的集会上说：“关税，对我来说，是最美丽的词。”

这位前总统誓言对进口征收全面10％至20％的关税，对中国商品征收60％的税率 - 近期更威胁对墨西哥制造的汽车征收200％的关税。

它是美国企业 - 而不是特朗普经常声称的外国政府 - 在这种商品征收关税时支付进口税，他们可以转嫁成本增高，这可能会导致通货膨胀。

除了他的关税计划，特朗普还希望延长即将到期的减税措施，并进一步降低公司所得税。

但税基金会表示，提议的关税可能会抵消他的税收政策的好处“，同时无法弥补税收收入的损失。”

- 更高成本 -

如果特朗普实施10％的全面关税并且其他国家进行报复，明年美国通货膨胀可能会上升1.3个百分点，国际经济研究所（PIIE）表示。

尖锐上涨的中国商品价格也将推升通货膨胀，该研究所补充道。

牛津经济学家伯纳德·亚罗斯等人估计，特朗普执政可能会使通货膨胀在高峰期上升0.6个百分点。

UC圣迭戈大学的教授凯尔·汉德利表示，以前，随着进口零部件的价格上涨，企业承受了沉重压力。

但他指出：“如果他们实施10％至20％的全面关税，我们不可能不在商店货架上看到这个。”

而且，制造业不太可能短时间内回到美国。

汉德利说：“我们几十年来一直没有在美国生产电视机。”他补充说，美国工厂也没有以满足消费的规模生产。

特朗普声称先前对中国等国家的关税上调没有带来通货膨胀。

但汉德利估计，出口商面对的供应链摩擦相当于一个两到四个百分点的关税冲击 - 公司告诉法新社，他们不得不转嫁一些成本。

《经济观察杂志》2019年的一篇论文发现，到2018年底，进口关税使美国消费者和进口商每月额外支付32亿美元的税额。

- 改变贸易路线 -

牛津经济学家称，特朗普的关税计划还可能削减美中双边贸易额70％，重定或消除数千亿美元的交易。

咨询公司补充说，美国的贸易量可能会减少10％，更加集中在北美和其他自由贸易协定伙伴身上。

由于从中国改变贸易路线，这些额外的关税将每年带来约5000亿美元的收入，但亚罗斯表示，最终从中国改变贸易路线会将这一数字削减至每年约2000亿美元。

PIIE补充说，像废除一项让中国免受各种美国征税的地位 - “永久正常贸易关系” -也可能在2025年将通货膨胀提高0.4个百分点。

尽管特朗普希望实施“互惠贸易法”以便“要是让我们缴税才能在他们那里做生意的国家，当他们向美国寄送产品时也要收取同样的税”，但亚罗斯认为这不太可能，因为这需要两党国会的支持。

                                                               - 食品，能源 -

特朗普经常承诺也要消除通货膨胀 - 这是选民关心的重点 - 说他会在一年内将能源账单减半。

分析人士希望这指的是国内石油和天然气部门更多的解监管。

但亚罗斯怀疑这是否会“大幅提高产量”，因为这取决于重要的能源生产商，他们反过来要负责向股东报告。

而特朗普希望通过减少进口外国农产品来降低食品成本，经济学家指出，进口壁垒可能会引发报复。

这可能会伤害出口大量的美国农民。

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's economic plan relies on tariffs to raise revenue and target countries which he says have been 'ripping us off' - Copyright AFP/File Jim WATSON

Beiyi SEOW

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wants to bring back US manufacturing and lower costs, relying on tariffs to boost US coffers and exert pressure on other countries — but the reality is less straightforward.

Ahead of November’s election, economists warn his policies could raise consumer prices and shake up global trade — with unclear benefits to US production.

The pitch is for tariffs to add billions in revenue and take aim at countries like China which have been “ripping us off,” while pushing businesses to bring production back on US shores.

“Other countries are going to finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all that we’ve done for the world,” Trump said in his September debate with Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

He told a rally in Michigan last week: “Tariffs, to me, are the most beautiful word.”

The former president has vowed a 10 percent to 20 percent across-the-board tariff on imports and a 60 percent rate on Chinese goods — more recently threatening a 200 percent levy on automobiles made in Mexico.

It is US businesses — not foreign governments, as Trump often asserts — that pay import taxes on overseas purchases when there are tariffs on such goods, and they can pass on the higher costs, which could add to inflation.

Alongside his tariff plans, Trump wants to extend expiring tax cuts and lower corporate income tax further.

But proposed tariffs could counteract the benefits from his tax policy “while falling short of offsetting the tax revenue losses,” said the Tax Foundation think tank.

– Higher costs –

US inflation could rise 1.3 percentage points above baseline next year if Trump imposed a 10 percent universal tariff and other governments retaliate, said the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE).

Sharp hikes on Chinese goods would also fuel inflation, the institute added.

Others, like Bernard Yaros of Oxford Economics, estimates a Trump presidency could raise inflation by 0.6 percentage points at its peak.

Previously, businesses bore the brunt as imported components got more expensive, said Kyle Handley, professor at UC San Diego.

But he noted: “If they do an across-the-board tariff of 10 percent to 20 percent, there’s no way we’re not going to see that on store shelves.”

And it is unlikely that manufacturing can return to the United States in short order.

“We haven’t made TVs in the US in decades,” Handley said, adding that US factories are not producing at the scale needed to satisfy consumption either.

Trump claims earlier tariff hikes on China and others brought no inflation.

But Handley estimates the supply chain frictions exporters faced were equivalent to a two to four percent tariff hit — and companies tell AFP they have had to pass on some costs.

A 2019 paper in the Journal of Economic Perspectives found that by end-2018, import tariffs were costing US consumers and importers an additional $3.2 billion per month in added tax costs.

– Rerouting trade –

Trump’s tariff plans could also slash bilateral US-China trade by 70 percent, redirecting or eliminating hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of exchanges, said Oxford Economics.

US trade volumes could be cut by 10 percent, becoming more centered on North American and other free trade agreement partners, the advisory firm added.

While the added tariffs would raise some $500 billion in revenue annually, rerouted trade from China could slash this figure closer to $200 billion per year eventually, Yaros said.

Other proposals like revoking a status that shields China from various US levies — “permanent normal trade relations” — could also raise inflation by 0.4 percentage points in 2025, PIIE added.

Although Trump wants a “reciprocal trade act” where “countries that make us pay a tax to do business with them will be charged the same tax when they send their product into the United States,” Yaros believes this is less likely as it requires bipartisan Congressional support.

                                                               – Food, energy –

Trump regularly promises to eliminate inflation, too — a critical voter concern — saying he would slash energy bills in half within a year.

Analysts expect that this refers to more deregulation in the domestic oil and gas sector.

But Yaros expressed skepticism that this would “unleash significantly greater production” given that it depends on major energy producers, who in turn have shareholders to answer to.

While Trump wants to lower food costs by allowing less foreign agricultural products into the country, economists have noted that import barriers could trigger retaliation.

This could harm US farmers who export significantly.