擒数网 （随信APP) | 以色列刺杀真主党领袖，真主党时代终结

被杀害的真主党领袖哈桑·纳斯拉拉是中东与伊朗结盟的“抵抗轴心”的支柱 - 版权法新社 -

来自Layal Abou Rahal的消息

一个月前真主党强大的领袖哈桑·纳斯拉拉被杀，这标志着伊朗支持的黎巴嫩组织发生了根本性转变，并重新引发呼吁放弃其庞大武器库。

美国世纪基金会的分析师萨姆·海勒表示：“纳斯拉拉之死标志着一个时代的结束。”

海勒还补充说，纳斯拉拉在真主党的带领下的几十年在黎巴嫩以及整个地区都有影响力。

他是伊朗“反抗轴心”中的关键支柱，与其他中东地区的武装组织以及叙利亚一起。

以色列在9月27日对贝鲁特南部郊区进行的空袭中暗杀了纳斯拉拉，给真主党带来了巨大打击，将该组织推入了一个新时代。

自2023年10月7日事件后，真主党已与以色列进行了一年的跨境火力交换。

上个月，以色列加大了对真主党据点的打击，派遣地面部队，同时一再杀死该组织高层的成员。

自1992年以来一直领导该组织的纳斯拉拉几十年来一直在对抗以色列，并在2006年战争期间在其支持者中获得崇拜地位。

海勒说：“他是该组织崛起到在黎巴嫩和地区具有重要地位的首要决策者。”

真主党的最高决策机构沙拉委员会尚未任命继任者。

被认为是有望接任的神职人员哈什姆·萨菲丁在纳斯拉拉之后的几天被以色列杀害。

— 本土战场 —

根据其副头目纳伊姆·卡西姆的说法，真主党现在由一群领导者管理。

包括黎巴嫩总理纳吉布·米卡蒂在内的黎巴嫩官员表示，他们与该组织的联系已经断绝了数周。

据真主党盟友穆沙拉克运动领导人、黎巴嫩议会议长纳比·贝里说，贝里被委托代表该组织发言。

据当地媒体报道，贝里被认为正在推动停火。

真主党一直将黎巴嫩的停火与加沙的战斗结束联系在一起，这一立场他们尚未正式改变。

尽管该组织似乎陷入困境，但其战士们每天仍向以色列发射数十枚火箭，有些火箭还到达哈伊法和特拉维夫等主要城市。

本周，真主党声称对以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在凯撒利亚沿海小镇的住所实施了无人机袭击。

该组织表示，以色列军队未能完全控制黎巴嫩的任何村庄，数周的地面入侵之后。

一位近距离接触真主党的消息人士表示，以色列部队在黎巴嫩作战时“遭遇到非常激烈的抵抗，被迫在重击下撤退”。

这位消息人士匿名表示，以色列的最大深度估计约为两公里。

他说，真主党有优势，因为它在自己的领土上作战，知道可以躲藏在哪些“树木和岩石”后面。

— “解除武装” —

广泛认为，真主党的武装比黎巴嫩国家军更为强大，并且是在1975-1990年内战结束后唯一没有解除武装的组织。

在长期主导黎巴嫩政治生活之后，真主党正面临着来自该国内部批评者的新呼吁以进行改变。

黎巴嫩计算机工程师埃利·贾布尔告诉法新社，他认为真主党唯一的前进道路是放弃武器。

这位27岁的年轻人说：“在真主党解除武装之前，战争不可能结束。”

“那时，它只能作为一个政党加入国家机构，”他说。

黎巴嫩的停火与2006年结束最后一次以色列与真主党战争的联合国决议的实施挂钩。

联合国安理会第1701号决议规定，只有黎巴嫩军队和联合国维和人员才能在黎巴嫩利塔尼河以南地区部署，真主党长期在该地区展开活动。

但黎巴嫩正面临着长期危机，使该国陷入两年的真空状态，直到选出一位总统。

许多黎巴嫩人指责真主党阻止选举进行。

黎巴嫩力量党领袖、长期与真主党对抗的萨米尔·杰阿格表示，任何新总统都不得“让任何团体或武器脱离国家框架”。

黎巴嫩总理纳吉布·米卡蒂周四表示，只有国家才应该携带武器。

然而，在长期饱受分裂之苦的国家中，试图“在政治上边缘化真主党将会引发该组织的暴力反抗”，海勒表示。

他补充说：“这将导致黎巴嫩内部冲突。”

Slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was a pillar of the Iran-aligned 'axis of resistance' in the Middle East - Copyright AFP -

Layal Abou Rahal

The killing of Hezbollah’s powerful leader Hassan Nasrallah a month ago has marked a fundamental shift for the Iran-backed Lebanese movement and revived calls for it to surrender its vast weapons arsenal.

“The death of Nasrallah marked the end of an era,” said analyst Sam Heller of the US-based think tank Century Foundation.

After decades at the helm, Nasrallah’s death “will necessarily mark a shift for the organisation”, Heller added.

Nasrallah’s influence extended far beyond his loyal Shiite Muslim support base in Lebanon.

He was a key pillar in Iran’s “axis of resistance” against the United States and Israel, which includes other armed groups in the Middle East as well as Syria.

Israel dealt Hezbollah a seismic blow when it assassinated Nasrallah on September 27 in a huge air strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs that has thrust the movement into a new age.

Hezbollah was already mired in a year of cross-border exchanges of fire with Israel, which it began in support of its Palestinian ally Hamas after the October 7, 2023 attack.

Last month, Israel ramped up strikes on Hezbollah strongholds and sent in ground forces while killing one member of the group’s top leadership after another.

Nasrallah, who had led the group since 1992, spearheaded operations against Israel for decades, and gained cult status among his supporters during the 2006 war.

According to Heller, “he was the foremost decision-maker in the organisation as it rose to prominence in Lebanon and regionally.”

The group’s governing Shura Council has yet to appoint a successor.

Hashem Safieddine, a cleric tipped for the post, was killed by Israel just days after Nasrallah.

-- Home turf --

Hezbollah is now run by a group of leaders, according to its deputy head Naim Qassem.

Lebanese officials, including Prime Minister Najib Mikati, have said that their contact with the group has been cut off for weeks.

Nabih Berri, Lebanon’s parliament speaker who heads the Hezbollah-allied Amal Movement, is tasked with speaking on the group’s behalf, Qassem said in a recent speech.

Berri is believed to be pushing for a ceasefire, according to local media reports.

Hezbollah had long linked a ceasefire in Lebanon to an end to fighting in Gaza, a position it has yet to formally reverse.

Even with the group appearing on the back foot, its fighters continue to fire dozens of rockets daily into Israel, some reaching major cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv.

This week, Hezbollah claimed a drone strike on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s home in the coastal town of Caesarea.

The group says Israeli forces have not been able to take full control of any village in Lebanon, weeks into a ground invasion.

Israeli forces operating in Lebanon “face very fierce resistance and are forced to retreat under heavy blows”, said a source close to Hezbollah.

“The maximum depth the Israelis have reached is estimated at about two kilometres (1.2 miles),” said the source, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

Hezbollah, he said, has the advantage because it is fighting on its own terrain, knowing which “trees and rocks” to hide behind.

-- ‘Disarm’ --

Hezbollah is widely believed to be better armed than Lebanon’s national military, and remains the only group that did not surrender its weapons after the 1975-1990 civil war.

After years of dominating political life in Lebanon, Hezbollah is facing new calls from its critics within the country to change.

Lebanese computer engineer Elie Jabbour told AFP he believes the only way forward is for Hezbollah to give up its weapons.

“The war cannot end before Hezbollah is disarmed,” he said.

“When that happens, it can join state institutions as a political party only,” said the 27-year-old.

A ceasefire in Lebanon has been tied to the implementation of a UN resolution that ended the last Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006.

UN Security Council Resolution 1701 states that only the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers should deploy in areas south of the Litani River — an area Hezbollah has long operated in.

But Lebanon is grappling with a prolonged crisis, leaving the country rudderless until a president is elected after a two-year void.

Many in Lebanon blame Hezbollah for blocking the vote.

Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces party and a longtime Hezbollah opponent, said any new president must not “leave any group or weapon outside the framework of the state”.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Thursday that only the state should carry weapons.

But in a country long wracked by division, attempts to “marginalise Hezbollah politically will… invite a violent response” from the group, Heller said.

It “will end in intra-Lebanese conflict,” he added.